The Next 15-20 Games Will Define The Seasons And Strategies Of Many Teams

    The caveat provided by and for struggling and surging teams has been, “it’s early”; but it’s getting to the point where it’s not so early anymore and the calendar is turning. (Julian Day-“The Calendar Man” from Batman: The Long Halloween—-right.) Without even realizing it, 20% of the season is just about gone and certain teams are going to find themselves with serious decisions to make for the futures of their teams. The next 15-20 games should indicate which teams should be adding, which should be subtracting and which should hold their fire. (Certain teams—-the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers—-are going to consider themselves automatic “add” teams whether they’re in playoff position or not, so they’re unmentioned.) Here are the teams for whom the next three weeks will go a long way into determining their future:

• Chicago White Sox:

    The White Sox were one of my picks to collapse to the bottom of the AL Central, but they capitalized on a series of weak and/or scuffling teams to get off to a decent start; they’ve fallen to .500 at 14-14 and a clear judgment may not be possible until they run into the Red Sox, resurgent Tigers and Dodgers. They are going to be playing the Mariners and Angels in the coming weeks, so that could be an indicator of whether they’re going to stay in the race. They have some assets on their roster that other teams could use. Jose Contreras has been pretty good so far this season; they have a leader type who could do with a change of scenery like Paul Konerko; Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera are impending free agents; and there’s Jim Thome, who would slide neatly into the Angels lineup.

• Oakland Athletics:

    The A’s are going to be playing the Rays, Braves, Red Sox and Blue Jays in May; then they’ve got the Tigers, Angels and Yankees all in a row; if they stay where they are and around the top of the standings in the AL West, then GM Billy Beane will consider adding to try and win; if not, Joe Blanton and (if he can ever get out on the mound) Rich Harden will be held up for auction.

• New York Mets:

    The only question for the Mets will be when they get their players back from injury is what the upper management is going to do with manager Willie Randolph if they continue the trend of win three, lose two, win two lose three. The lineup is intact (as of this writing) with the return of Moises Alou, so they shouldn’t have a problem scoring runs. They’re playing the Dodgers, Braves, Rockies and Yankees over the next month, so a pretty clear picture should present itself by the end of May.

• St. Louis Cardinals:

    The first place Cardinals are expecting both Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter back, along with Matt Clement eventually, so they won’t have to go outside the organization to get pitching. They do need a bat if they want to contend realistically and one name I would keep an eye on if the Rockies continue their freefall is Matt Holliday. The Cardinals schedule isn’t much more difficult than it’s been over the first month aside with a few games against the Dodgers and Brewers. They should maintain their position at or around the top of the division until mid-to-late-June, when they run into the Phillies, Red Sox and Tigers.

• Cincinnati Reds:

    With the number of young pitchers they have in their organization, the way Bronson Arroyo is struggling and the league-wide need for arms, new GM Walt Jocketty may hold Arroyo up for auction and hope that both the Yankees and Red Sox get involved and try to one-up one another not only to get Arroyo, but to keep him away from the other. The Reds schedule is very rough over the next month with the Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Braves and Padres among others on the docket and it doesn’t get any easier all the way up through to the All Star break.

• San Diego Padres:

    They’re old and slow; they can’t hit and may have to make some drastic changes given the advanced age of prominent members of the pitching staff. One thing the Padres have never been is afraid to trade or at least discuss big names. Their schedule is somewhat difficult over the next month. They play the Rockies, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals and Mariners and will probably make aggressive decisions sooner rather than later. I don’t know if Greg Maddux has a no-trade clause in his contract, but if he doesn’t I’m sure he has a “gentleman’s agreement” that the Padres won’t send him somewhere he doesn’t want to go. I get the feeling that this is likely Maddux’s last year (although he could continue pitching the way he does for a couple of more years); one thing I can definitely see happening is Maddux back to the Braves to end his career as part of the aged big three along with John Smoltz and Tom Glavine for one more run. It probably wouldn’t take more than a couple of mid-level prospects to get him.
    Chris Young’s inability to prove himself to be durable enough to provide more than 180 innings might prompt the Padres to make him available and he would probably yield a big return in a trade; and their veteran acquisitions like Jim Edmonds and Tad Iguchi are on one-year contracts, so they would be attractive to contending teams who are seeking experienced help.

• Colorado Rockies:

     It’s beginning to look like that unlikely winning streak and late season run to the World Series might have been a freaky accident of circumstance; with Troy Tulowitzki out until July (at least), they can probably forget about catching the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers are starting to look like they’re taking off as well. Matt Holliday is signed through 2009,and is represented by Scott Boras, so a hometown discount doesn’t look like it’s in the cards for the Rockies. Would it be such a shock to see them hold up Holliday for auction to acquire some pitching? Half the teams in baseball would love to get their hands on Holliday and the Rockies are playing the Cardinals, Padres, Cubs, Mets and Phillies over the next month. Their course of action should be clear by then.

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