16 comments on “Current Players—Hall Of Famers Or Not?

  1. Wow. Prince, I hope you had a glass of something good after writing that post. I can only imagine how much work went into it. You really think Posada is “likely?” I love him, but I just don’t see him getting in.

    Am sitting here watching coverage of the plane crash into the Hudson. I can’t believe people didn’t freeze to death in the water. Amazing. And all because of BIRDS?

    http://janeheller.mlblogs.com

  2. Dustin Pedroia: If he’s applicable, why isn’t Ian Kinsler?

    Andy Pettittte: Pleeeaasse.

    Hanley Ramirez: I’m just concurring with you, and expressing my giddiness for his career numbers.

    Washington Nationals: None applicable? What?!

    Aramis Ramirez: I just can’t see it.

    Albert Pujols: Don’t “jump” to conclusions.

    Omar Vizquel: Errr, I don’t think so (that’s my opinion; he’ll probably get in)

    Griffey Jr.: An oops?

    Jason Giambi: He won’t get in, but I would have seriously considered voting for him. Like you’ve said before Paul, writers shouldn’t pile on mistakes, but if Jim Rice was a good enough of hitter to get in, Giambi is too.

    Aaron
    http://districtboy.mlblogs.com/

  3. Jane, catchers get a little bit of little easier time because of the position. Posada’s got the power numbers and the on base numbers to get serious consideration. He has to come back and have 2-3 more years of productivity with the bat.
    Aaron, I forgot about Junior. Because he was clean during the steroid era, he might be the one to get 100% of the vote as a tribute to being upright.
    Look at Ramirez’s numbers. He’s only 30 and has 249 homers. Six more years averaging 25-30 and you’re talking about 400-420 homers. If he hangs around til he’s 40, he might get to 500. Plus there are so few third basemen in the Hall, he’s gonna have the numbers.
    Rice was a better hitter than Giambi.
    And Pedroia’s numbers and accomplishments dwarf Kinsler’s. Pedroia’s great at home, good on the road; Kinsler’s great at home, mediocre on the road.

  4. Is Rice really a better hitter than Giambi? Look, we know that Giambi cheated, but as far as the numbers go: Giambi OPS+ 146, Rice 128. Giambi OBP .402 vs. Rice .352. Giambi’s OPS+ may come down if he plays beyond this year, but it won’t be all that much.

    http://statisticianmagician.mlblogs.com/

  5. Good grief. You can’t just dismiss the PED stuff as if it were some small addendum to Giambi’s stats. Jason Giambi was a 165 pound third baseman when he broke into pro ball. Had he not used PEDs, there’s no guarantee he even would’ve made it to the big leagues; been a regular player or anything more than a slap hitter. If he didn’t have the power he gained by using the drugs, there goes his slugging percentage; and if he didn’t have any power, the pitchers wouldn’t have been as cautious with him and wouldn’t have been walking him with such frequency; so there goes his OBP. To compare a guy whose strength came out of a bottle to a guy who was “country strong” like Rice is nonsense. And even though Giambi told the truth about using the drugs, that doesn’t validate his accomplishments with them.

  6. The individual player expectations, relative to one another, are really good. As Jane said, alot of thought went into this – and it’s an excellent discussion starter. More generally, if I understand your categories correctly, the prospects seem optimistic. For example, I wouldnt call Berkman, who’s a great hitter but has less than 5000 ABs, “automatic”. Similarly, Utley is 30 years old, without a Top 5 MVP finish and short of 3000ABs. “Likely” seems a little high for him, or Vizquel or Kent for that matter, neither of whom is putting up addtl big years at this point. Carlos Lee is a simple, polite “No”.
    Also, the list may be a bit Northeast-centric. I’d have to think about that some more, though. Fun list to look thru. Nice job!
    http://diamondhacks.blogspot.com/

  7. Wow, Prince. This has to be one of the most thorough assessments of future Hall-of-Fame candidates I have ever seen. You should get paid for this! And I agree that Joe Mauer will be in the Hall if he remains healthy. I’m not so sure about Morneau, though. He’s mostly an RBI machine because the Twins are so good at getting runners on ahead of him, I don’t think he’d be so successful elsewhere. I doubt Joe Nathan will get into the Hall, since closers are usually overlooked and he hasn’t had much success in the post-season (so far).
    Moose definitely deserves to get in, and so does Jim Thome. The two of them could probably win a three-game series against the Twins all by themselves!
    Good work, as usual.

    http://www.plunking-gomez.mlblogs.com

  8. The other thing I like is this puts addtnl, forward thinking context around the current candidates, seeing whose coming down the pike afterwards. For example, is Vizquel as viable a choice given the assembly line of Jeter, Hanley, Reyes, JRoll etc on his heels?
    That’s another reason I sort of wince at Jim Rice. Forget Pujols and Bonds. With sluggers like Griffey, Manny, Frank Thomas, and Piazza coming down the pike, followed by Vladdy, ARod, Chipper and the Kents, Berkmans, Posadas behind that, he just seems so out of place to me. More famous than some perhaps, but no better player than Jim Edmonds, imo.

  9. Matt, I think you’ve got some blinders on towards Jim Rice that are leading you to be so adamantly against him. I can’t put Jim Edmonds in Rice’s category. I didn’t put Edmonds in the “PED Questionable” category, but I easily could’ve given his sudden burst from a very good player to an annual MVP candidate from ages 30-34. It’s a bit dubious. You can’t compare eras either. There are the bandbox ballparks (never mind that Rice had the Wall to shoot at); an increased number of teams, thinning out the talent leading to rotten pitching; and the sheer number of homers that were hit in the Edmonds years and the guys who were putting up 40 a year make it an unfair comparison to what Rice had to deal with.
    Carlos Lee is going to have close to 500 homers if he hangs around until he’s 40 and spends the last three or four years as a DH in the AL (more homers if he plays in Texas). Berkman’s going to the HOF if he’s 75% as good over the next five years as he’s been up to now. Utley’s swing is such that he’s just going to get better, but that’s my own judgment. I don’t know that I’d vote for Vizquel, but he’s got a case comparing him to guys like Phil Rizzuto and Pee Wee Reese. His job was to be a vacuum cleaner at short, which he was; Jeter, et al had to hit because they didn’t have the range and glove that Vizquel did.

  10. One last riff on Rice and then I’ll move on. I dont think it’s blinders so much as I value the new info more and you value the old. I dont mean that the least bit snarky, btw, I respect your opinions alot and agree that Rice was a HOF caliber hitter, with a little cushion left over. But what the new data really drives home is that, A) he was a better hitter than he was a BATTER, and B) he was a considerably less valuable all around player than either, especially compared to other HOF OFers, who as a rule, run and field quite well.
    I completely echo your PED concerns re Edmonds. It IS a bit dubious, and in my effort to make a statistical comp, I glossed over that. But I differ when you say we cant compare eras. There’s no perfect translation obviously, but we’ve always compared eras through stats and lore, and this is where the sabr modeling becomes incredibly useful, imo. OPS+ and ERA+ for example, are basically comparing a player’s output relative to his league peers in a given year. (It also adjusts for park anomalies, but that’s a different issue). So, with a guy like Rice, instead of primarily relying on old info (like his impresive but ultimately subjective Top 5 MVP finishes), we can see he was 28% better than his peers (OPS) in a nuetral park (which is outstanding, btw). But Edmonds is 32% better than HIS peers (who may be diluted w/ expansion but are also strengthened by intl talent, etc) in a slightly shorter career than Jim Ed. This makes them quite comparable, before even accounting for the glove disparity which I’m sure you’d acknowledge was pretty huge. Not to say Edmonds belongs in Cooperstown, just that his objective value compares with Jim Ed, perhaps even favorably.
    Cheers

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